UPDATES to the Turkey, Syria, Greater Kurdistan Conflict

by Scott Creighton

Yesterday I wondered aloud about the ramifications of the new apparent alliance between the US, Turkey and the FSA (read as “Obama’s moderate terrorists in Syria”) and Kerry and Lavrov’s declaration that there would be no independent Kurdish state being forged in Syria. I concluded the US has reached a deal with Turkey and Russia which puts an end to the Greater Kurdistan project at least for now. But I also stated the Pentagon and CIA would have plans of their own which might put an end to that plan.

I also wrote that one of the possibilities as to what this new union signifies might just be Erdogan cutting a deal with the US to regime change Syria in exchange for putting the Greater Kurdistan project on hold.

What follows are some news stories coming out of Russia, Turkey and Syria today. Taking a look at them might help understand how this thing is going to shake out and it might help us understand how it came to pass in the first place.

Reuters is reporting Turkey is pushing farther into Syria after they successfully drove KurdISIS™ from Jarablus. The London-based pro-regime change psyop NGO, Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, is reporting 35 civilian casualties resulting from Turkish bombing of various villages as well as 25 Kurdish militants being killed in the process as well. You can take that for what it’s worth coming from that group.

SANA News Agency seems to verify at least 20 civilian casualties in this latest round of conflict while they also acknowledge continued violations of the cease-fire agreement by various “moderate” terrorist groups.

The Daily Sabah is confirming the southern push by the Turkish forces toward Manbij, a city taken by the Kurds with the help of US and French bombing campaigns. That’s where US forces allowed KurdISIS™ to leave the city and head north to Jarablus a week or so ago. They posted a photo showing what is purported to be more Turkish tanks waiting at the border to drive into Syria and join the combat. I cannot confirm that these tanks are waiting to enter Syria.

This photo dated Aug. 27, 2016, shows Turkish tanks deployed near the Syrian border are waiting at the Turkish side of the border. (AA Photo)

An op-ed published by the Daily Sabah hints at the truth behind KurdISIS™ by simply stating provable facts on the ground in Syria.

“One of the reasons why Turkish tanks entered Syrian territory is Turkey’s desire to end the problems created by the U.S.’s method of fighting DAESH. The efforts to eliminate DAESH by using the YPG have led to the expansion of YPG-held territory and an escalation in DAESH attacks in Turkey.” Daily Sabah

The Kurds are concerned that Operation Euphrates Shield wont end at the west bank of the river.

The YPG, which is part of the US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) coalition fighting Daesh, claimed that artillery had been fired at a village neighboring Kobani on Friday night, and that YPG positions have also been fired upon by Turkish forces.” Press TV

That makes the new conflict map look something like this (oversimplified of course):

NEW MAP
UN Secretary General Stephane Dujarric de la Rivière has called Turkey’s actions in Syria an “invasion” because they are targeting the Kurds who are stealing Syrian land and not ISIS™.  Stephane Dujarric is a graduate of Georgetown University’s School of Foreign Service ( a well known CIA training center) and looks to be a contender for the UN Sec. General position in 2017.

An interesting side note: Googling “Recep Erdogan” produces no news stories later than Aug. 9th. However, Googling “Erdogan” produces one regime change Erdogan-bashing story after another:

Meanwhile the Kurds are stepping up their attacks on soft targets in Turkey: “Suspected Kurdish militants fired rockets at the airport in Turkey’s main southeastern city of Diyarbakir

If the Turkish military incursion into Syria stops at the west bank of the river, then the implications are that they have cut a deal with the US to allow the Kurds to keep what they already stole. If they advance across the river and continue to denounce the Assad government in the process, it would seem that Obama solved his “you need to invade” problem by cutting a deal with Erdogan who is now in full control of the Turkish military.

If, on the other hand, Erdogan continues to advance on Kurdish positions to the east of the river and demands a political solution to the Syrian conflict, keeping Assad in power till the end of his current term in office, then that means he has cut his deal with the Russians and the US is simply going along for the ride rather than facing off with 4 nations in Syria (Turkey, Russian, Syria and Iran)

I don’t know what all this means at this time. There’s way too much up in the air for me to draw any accurate conclusions. I will say the Erdogan bashing from the likes of Zero Hedge and Open Democracy might bring it all into focus a little better, but right now, I’m just watching like the rest of us.

Have a great Sunday folks.

5 Responses

  1. Thank you for your usual thoughtful and insightful analysis.

  2. It’s all for Israel

    “Iraq, rich in oil on the one hand and internally torn on the other, is guaranteed as a candidate for Israel’s targets. Its dissolution is even more important for us than that of Syria. Iraq is stronger than Syria. In the short run it is Iraqi power which constitutes the greatest threat to Israel. An Iraqi-Iranian war will tear Iraq apart and cause its downfall at home even before it is able to organize a struggle on a wide front against us. Every kind of inter-Arab confrontation will assist us in the short run and will shorten the way to the more important aim of breaking up Iraq into denominations as in Syria and in Lebanon. In Iraq, a division into provinces along ethnic/religious lines as in Syria during Ottoman times is possible. So, three (or more) states will exist around the three major cities: Basra, Baghdad and Mosul, and Shi’ite areas in the south will separate from the Sunni and Kurdish north. It is possible that the present Iranian-Iraqi confrontation will deepen this polarization.” (A Strategy for Israel in the Nineteen Eighties, Oded Yinon, monabaker.com)

    http://www.counterpunch.org/2014/06/20/its-all-for-israel/

  3. I tend to doubt Erdogan would be inclined to make a deal with someone who just tried to make hamburgers out of him. And then have Uncle Vlad breathing down his neck for the backstab. Plus a deal like that may only be short-term, merely delaying the next opportunity for more mischief. But like you say, it’s too early to say what the next move will be.

  4. Hey Willy- Yah, I’ve been following this latest- Almost without being able to catch my breath- I do not think that Turkey is going to go after Kobane- Which in my book is Ayn Al Abab, Syria.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ayn_al-Arab_District

    though Ayn al Arab has been written away by the main stream media already

    Turkey says they aren’t entering Ayn al Arab, rather they are laying a foundation for that massive wall they have been building all along the border….

    It’s definitely a fast moving, always changing situation

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