Comparing Democratic Primary Results to National Education Levels Stats: The Higher the Education, the Less Votes for Hillary

by Scott Creighton

I don’t know who made this, but it’s brilliant.

Hillary Clinton is quickly running out of SEC states to win and The Bern is still hanging in there. And remember, all those undemocratic “super delegates” the fake left likes to use to make sure they don’t really serve the interests of the voters… they may be committed to Killary now, but nothing says they have to stay that way.

An interesting dynamic is taking shape in the Democratic Party Primary season (formerly known as the moderate Republican Party) and that is, it seems the less people who show up for the primaries in the poorly educated states, the better Hillary’s chances of winning. If the education level of the state is relatively high, people show up in droves similar to 2008 numbers… and they vote for Bernie Sanders.

And guess what? Hillary is running out of poorly educated states.

Take a look-see at this here map thingy:

current

Green = Sanders Yellow = Clinton

Anyone notice a pattern developing? Without repeating any of the tired SEC cliches, let’s take a look at the current primary results and compare them to the national education rankings in the country and see if we notice a pattern developing (spoiler alert: yep, there’s a pattern developing (the hint is in the title))

The southern states, for the most part, are going to Hillary Clinton while voter turnout is way lower than it was in 2008. In some cases as low as 50% less while the northern states are trending toward Bernie with very high turnout.

“So far in the Democratic primary, there’s only one set of circumstances in which the party is producing strong voter turnout: When Bernie Sanders wins a state, tons of voters are showing up.

In Colorado, Kansas and Maine, Democrats have actually surpassed the turnout of the 2008 primary contests, while the caucuses in Minnesota and Nebraska only narrowly missed. Sanders won all five states…

But much of this primary season has been a different story. In every state that Hillary Clinton has won — which is most states — the party is seeing a significant decline in voter turnout from the 2008 election.” Zach Carter

So far, Hillary Clinton has won primaries or caucuses in:

  • Iowa
  • Nevada
  • South Carolina
  • Alabama
  • American Samoa
  • Arkansas
  • Georgia
  • Massachusetts
  • Tennessee
  • Texas
  • Virginia
  • Louisiana
  • Mississippi

Bernie Sanders has won:

  • New Hampshire
  • Colorado
  • Minnesota
  • Oklahoma
  • Vermont
  • Kansas
  • Nebraska
  • Maine
  • Michigan

What if we were to take those states, just for the fun of it, and list their education ranking along side them based on the percentage of people in the state with a Bachelor’s degree?

Here’s Hillary’s list (highest percentage = 1 lowest = 50) (below national average are in blue and above average states are red):

 

  • Iowa – 34th
  • Nevada – 45th
  • South Carolina – 37th
  • Alabama – 44th
  • American Samoa – NA
  • Arkansas – 49th
  • Georgia – 20th
  • Massachusetts – 1st (Clinton barely won)
  • Tennessee – 41st
  • Texas – 30th
  • Virginia – 6th
  • Louisiana – 46th
  • Mississippi – 48th

 

I’m seeing a lot of blue here on Hillary’s victory list. Only two of those states are in the top 20% while 6 make up almost the entirety of the bottom 20% with the rest lingering well below the national average.

Now let’s check out how Bernie’s states stack up (below national average are in blue and above average states are red) :

  • New Hampshire – 9th
  • Colorado – 2nd
  • Minnesota – 10th
  • Oklahoma – 42nd
  • Vermont – 7th
  • Kansas – 16th
  • Nebraska – 22nd
  • Maine – 23rd
  • Michigan – 36th

What do you know? Lot’s of red.

In Bernie’s case, only two of the states he has won are below the national average in terms of education level and he has 4 states that are in the top 20% and remember, Bernie damn near won Massachusetts, which is #1.

I’m no statistician, but I kinda see a pattern developing there.

Let’s see what states are next on the primary schedule between now and April 26th when this thing should be wrapped up one way or the other (below national average are in blue and above average states are red).

  • Florida – 31st
  • Illinois – 12th
  • Missouri – 33rd
  • North Carolina – 25th
  • Ohio – 38th
  • Arizona – 29th
  • Idaho – 39th
  • Utah – 19th
  • Alaska – 24th
  • Hawaii – 15th
  • Washington – 11th
  • Wisconsin – 28th
  • Wyoming – 40th
  • New York – 8th
  • Connecticut – 4th
  • Delaware – 18th
  • Maryland – 3rd
  • Pennsylvania – 26th
  • Rhode Island – 13th

Eight states below the national education average with primaries between now and April the 26th and eleven with grades above average in that same time period.

That’s not to say Hillary will win all the lower ranked states and Bernie will will all of the higher ranked ones, but if the trend continues each will win the majority of them. Again, if the trend continues, they will trade off one for one or two for two (Hillary with 3 higher than average states so far with Bernie winning 2 lower than average states… pretty even) then it looks like Bernie may just win 11 out of the next 19 or so state primaries.

And that ain’t bad for a guy who was polling at 3% a year ago.

I don’t want to put too much stock in this simplistic little statistical analysis of these primary results but I think it’s hard to ignore a trend that’s this obvious.

I am certainly not equating education level with intelligence. These numbers are based on people in each state with a 4-year college degree and I myself do not add to my home state’s ranking in that regard. Having worked around people my entire life who also don’t have college degrees, I can tell you, it’s not by any means a measure of intelligence. I’ve known a lot of bright, quick-witted blue-collar workers and a number of ignorant, close-minded doctors and lawyers without a lick of sense to share between the lot of them.

But as any marketing asshole will tell you, you can’t ignore trends like this one and whatever it says about Bernie and Hillary respectively is for you to decide. I was just wondering about it when I saw that breakdown of the states Hillary and Bernie won so I looked it up.

All of this said, I’ll tell you, I wasn’t going to go vote in the primary down here in 5 days, but today I think I will pack up my little old lady mother and zip down to the polling stations and cast a vote just for the fun of it.

I know they are going to flip the little switch on those electronic voting machines once they get tired of using Bernie to bring folks back into the warm fold of the big tent that is the neoliberal, neocon Democratic Business Party of America. I fully understand that and expect it.

So no… voting doesn’t matter and perhaps down here in the dirty south where Hillary is winning and the numbers are tremendously low as far as turnout goes, perhaps us uneducated folk understand what the college educated Bernie voters don’t as of yet. Maybe we’re a little wiser at this point… or a little less indoctrinated… and we aren’t showing up because we know how this shit really works.

(ooo. Bet you didn’t think I was going in that direction, did ya?)

But that’s too pessimistic for me today. Most days it isn’t. But today, it is.

So I will zip down to my local polling station with my independent voter card and register with the horrible Democratic Party for a couple hours and cast a vote and maybe I’ll pat myself on the back for a minute or two and treat myself to a cup of coffee in one of those pretentious little shops with the self-absorbed folks down here in Tampa. I’ll tell myself I’m part of the “revolution” and all that while simultaneously working to prove my own statistical analysis wrong.

Hell, I might even get myself an “Uneducated for Bernie!” button (somebody please make one of those) and wear it with pride as I go grocery shopping in Walmart with my EBT card.

Yeah, I’ll do that. Fuck trends. Even the ones I find myself. Might as well enjoy the pipe dream a little while longer with everyone else because we all know who’s really going to “win” now don’t we?

6 Responses

  1. In the county I caucused in in Iowa, Hillary ‘won’ by one vote.

    Way it went, we were all milling around the room while the counter was making his one and only count with his finger

    • we know she stole Iowa. I wrote about that I think.

      • Oh.

        Well, see, thing is, Scott, suddenly I got old—broken down, out of gas, losing memory, …

        So, I’m bowing out with this comment

        • I certainly hope you didn’t misinterpret my comment. All I was doing was agreeing with you.

          And the article certainly isn’t damning of your candidate, in fact, I wrote I will run over there and vote for him in the primary next week even though I know it doesn’t matter one hill of beans.

          It’s funny, you know, identity politics. Long time ago a lost a bunch of friends of mine because I was trying to tell them Obama would be no different and possibly even worse than Bush Jr.

          It is what it is. I’m sorry to see you go. How long’s it been? 4 years? Longer?

          well, you aren’t the first and you wont be the last. A lot of folks are piping down these days. I wish I could sometimes.

          I wish you well Roy.

  2. Your methodology is poor. There is no reason that a state’s overall education ranking would correlate with the Democratic electorate of the state.

    Logic would dictate that Bernie’s more rural support compared to Hillary’s dominance in populous areas indicates the opposite since those in rural areas lag behind those in metropolitan areas.

    http://www.ers.usda.gov/amber-waves/2014-december/rural-areas-lag-urban-areas-in-college-completion.aspx#.Vz-ryZErJpg

  3. Will you do a follow up to this article? I wonder if a follow up would show that Hillary’s wins in MD, CT, NY, OH, DE, IL, NC, don’t make it seem as though Bernie is running second in these sorts of states?

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