New Hampshire Primaries: Marcobot Does it Again, Trump Calls Cruz a “P***y” and Readying the Public for “Surprise” Results

by Scott Creighton

When you think about it, there is only one real contest in the Republican primary season this year and that is the one for that elusive, centrist path to the nomination.

With Ted “The Televangilist” Cruz occupying for far, far right Moral Majority lane and The Donald of the Combover claiming the left leaning, Glorious Billionaire route, the center lane is by all accounts, the path to nirvana for the remaining candidates.

And up until his bizarre Marcobot performance this past Saturday night (where he inexplicably repeated a line twice when answering two different questions and then repeated it again answering a statement by Christie which was chastising him for repeating himself) Marco Rubio seemed to have that lane locked up for himself. He was a shoe-in for the nomination. Then the great orator imploded for no apparent reason.

Rubio Shoots Himself in the Foot

Now, in case someone missed it the first time, he’s done it again. Not only did he repeat himself at one campaign rally like he did at the debate, this time saying something about “living in the 21st century” (interesting side note: Rubio’s campaign slogan is “New American Century” and he is a pure neocon of the Project for a New American Century type) but at another rally, he actually said the same thing he said at the debate. The same line.

Looks to me like Marco is taking a dive, getting out of the way as it were.

The Donald Goes Crass

At a rally for the Donald, after he said something about Ted Cruz not being tough enough on torture, some woman jumped up and said “he’s a pussy!” to which Donald laughed and then repeated her slur in order to make sure the audience heard it. Of course, he pretended to chastise her for saying it, but he made sure to repeat it just the same.

“You’re not allowed to say it, and I never expect to hear it from you ever again. She said that he’s a pussy,” Trump informed the crowd at the Verizon Wireless Arena in downtown Manchester on the eve of the state’s primary election.

The crowd loudly cheered. Trump then joked, for the sake of the press, that he was reprimanding her. Huffington Post

Trump said last Saturday night that if he were president, he would “bring back things worse than water-boarding”

The rack perhaps? Or maybe Room 101?

That’s just what this country needs: a self-conscience billionaire who thinks he’s entitled to torture chambers for his critics and enemies of our “national interests”

“But Don’t Trust the Poll Numbers”, we are being told

The latest polls out of New Hampshire don’t do my prediction (Jeb “wins” nomination) and favors. Believe it or not, he’s dropped from 10% to 7% after his “standing up for himself” performance this past Saturday night. I guess the voters noticed the guy stumbling over every line. I guess they still don’t want Deep Twitchy anymore than they did 6 months ago.

Trump holds 31%, down two points from the February 3-6 release, but within the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Behind him, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio earned 17% support — within the margin of sampling error of Texas Sen. Ted Cruz at 14%, but significantly ahead of the fourth and fifth place candidates in the poll, Ohio Gov. John Kasich at 10% and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7%.

Behind Bush, Carly Fiorina stands at 5%, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie at 4% and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson at 3%. CNN

According to these numbers, Rubio’s little “Marcobot” performance hasn’t hurt him that much. Considering who the republicans have left to chose from in that center lane, you can hardly blame them.

But as these numbers come out and the polls are already open in New Hampshire, a new meme is taking over at the corporate news sites: don’t expect the results to look anything like these polls.

“It is a state built for surprises: a famously independent-minded political battleground, where new voters can register to cast ballots on the day of the election and people unaffiliated with either party can vote in primaries.” New York Times

In this article, the New York Times reporter seems to be suggesting that polls can’t be accurate in New Hampshire because of all those dreaded independent voters out there switching back and forth like some kind of nefarious spy.

Over at the Huffington Post (notoriously pro-Hillary) a writer says basically the same thing, but gives us a little history as well.

“Part of the reason for so many polls right before the New Hampshire primary is that the state is known for its volatility. Voters there often make up their minds at the last minute, partly in response to results from Iowa. Indecisive voters can easily skew Election Day results away from what polls had indicated would happen. Pollsters try to poll as late as possible to capture 11th-hour momentum and decisions, but it doesn’t always work.

In 2008, pollsters missed the Democratic vote outcome in New Hampshire despite lots of late polling. Hillary Clinton’s surprise win on primary night over then-Sen. Barack Obama stunned the polling community so much that the American Association for Public Opinion Research put out a report about why the polls missed the outcome…

That’s why pollsters, even as they put out their numbers and vie for media attention, are warning us that their final estimates of where the race stands might not be indicative of how people will vote on Tuesday. Huffington Post

What does this tell us? It tells us to not expect the polls to reflect the outcome in New Hampshire.

The states uses ACCUVOTE ballot counting systems and good old fashioned paper ballots with an “X” denoting a vote. Though ACCUVOTE does leave a paper trail (sheet of paper fed into the machine which records and reports vote totals) the totals can still be manipulated. There are tons of videos showing someone feeding a ballot into the machine marked for candidate “X” and it reports a vote for candidate “Y” thus the paper trail is only good if there is an audit, which is very rare these days.

184 towns and wards in New Hampshire use ACCUVOTE systems (PDF)

Predictions?

It would be tremendously risky for them to throw the vote on the democrat side for Hillary (like they did in Iowa) considering she trails Sanders right now by 20% or more in recent polls. That’s why they had to steal Iowa. Had she dropped the first two primaries, Clinton would be in deep doo-doo and people would have to stop wondering if he “could” win and face the fact that he “was winning” already.

So I predict Bernie wins by a comfortable margin, but not 20%, which fuels the notion that Hillary is catching up and has momentum going into the next primary.

On the republican side, it’s pretty much a free for all.

I expect that in spite of the poll numbers, Jeb Bush pulls out an amazing come from behind “victory” taking second place or even first. I also expect the other centrist contenders to do well also.

I guess we will see how it turns out.

One Response

  1. Have we reached “peak b/s” on the Trump meter?Just where do they go from here?http://www.radicalpress.com/?p=8965

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: